Canadian National Inventory Report (NIR) - GHG emissions

Source: Arcus Power | · LINKEDIN · | May 10, 2024

During the 1992 Kyoto Protocol, the @UNFCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) was drafted and agreed to by 154 parties/countries with the primary objective to “stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system.”

As part of the convention, 44 states submit annual reports titled “National Inventory Submissions” which outline, in great detail, the sources and sinks of atmospheric emissions in their state.

While the primary purpose of national inventory reports (NIR) is to outline greenhouse gas emissions, they also serve as a good source for energy and economic developments, as well as the general state of emissions analysis and politics as they evolve from year to year.

With the release of Canada’s most recent NIR last week, which presents data from 2022, let’s take a look at some of the interesting trends in Canada and how we expect them to continue as the reports catch up to the present.

UNFCCC goals are typically compared to a baseline of 2005, and the most recent report shows that Canada has decreased emissions from that baseline by 7% as of 2022. However, as the included figure shows, those reductions have not been consistent across the years where, up to 2019, emissions were almost identical to the baseline year.

Historical patterns show that an increase in economic activity comes with an increase in energy consumption and subsequent increases in emissions. While the figure shows the largest short-term reductions in the years 2008 (financial crisis) and 2020 (COVID), the true challenge of decarbonization is maintaining economic and social growth while reducing adverse environmental impacts.